This January many participants of Forum Nokia and some other communities make forecasts on mobile technologies development in 2009. So, I deside to post my own version for a rather long period. Thats more interesting for me. All the following is just my own ponit of view. It is based on my ideas of IT evolution ways and ideal mobile device.

 

First, I stress that I'am goint to talk about a rather long period (about 8-15 years). We already speak of smartphones as  of multimedia computers, and it's not so long ago when mobile PC sales overgrows those of PC. Thats why it is absolutely reasonable to suggest vanishing of the bounds between mobile phones and personal computers in the future. (And I'll show you, why those bounds will disappear). It's clearly, that's making long-termed forecasts is impossible while staying in to-day technologies: so we need to predict the IT industry development in whole.

So, my forecast is based on the three whales: wireless connection, SaaS and Cloud Computing.

 
Development.

 

 

 

The development of wireless connection technology gives us access to the mobile Internet, and time after time the mobile devices progress rises the maximum of the data transfer speed. So, this is my first obvious supposition: in the nearest future all the classes of the mobile devices will be supplied with such fast connections, that PC advantages in this area will be demolished. The thechnology will cover regions сomparable with those of to-day mobile phone connection. Is it possible? I think, it's inevitable. Perhaps, it will be the result of  the mobile networks development or Wi-Fi-like technologies evolution. It's not important. It is important, that online TV and video calls will come into the everyday life and VoIP by the natural way will oust voice connection.

Interesting links:

• Docomo tests 4G in Japan
• Fixed apps the best bet for WiMAX, says analyst 

 

Meanwhile the development of SaaS (Software as a Service) will be continued. Even now web-technologies allow to create applications that aren't inferior to the functionality of the usual PC software.  SaaS broadens horizons for services commercialization — such services can not be hacked, you can use the same license on different PC, pay for time or number of uses. SaaS will allow managers to save money on the software for workstations and licenses, it will make easy the life of the administrators, security specialists and even developers. And, of course, SaaS will provide users with the new opportunities — data access from any PC or mobile phone, uniform data processing regardless of the platform

What about mobile technologies, SaaS will become the best solution for many problems, like: platform fragmentation, security, data synchronization/storage and hardware.

Interesting links:

• Increase in the trend of web browsing on mobile …
• Google GDrive is not a rumor 
• Adobe Photoshop Online
• Windows Azure: The End Of Software?
• Opinion: Why SaaS is the future of software delivery

Finally, Cloud Computing — a conception whereby the customers can use company computing facilities, disk space and data channels  for solving resourse-intensive tasks. The loading between computres, that belong to the same «cloud», is distributed automatically. Thus, user deals with virtual computer, that consists of multiple severs and hides from him all the complexity of the device.

Imagine a workplace in five years: all your media data are located in social networks (well, as for me, in 90% of cases I use social network (vkontakte.ru) as a mediaplayer), documents and mail — on Google servers, online office — on Microsoft ones. It's quit uncomfortable, not because of passwords and hosts to remember, but because of  the data separation. Downloading a photo to upload it to online Adobe editor? Nonsense! The data should be host-based in a system, that guarantees their bacup storage, security and smart access by request. Google has some experience in such technologies (how do you think they keep the monstrous-sized cache of their search engine). On the other hand the system should provide opportunities for web services to edit this data.

Thus, the systems will appear in which it will be possible to login and get access to the user data. Besides that such systems will provide twenty-four-hour access to the multiple services data, that, perhaps, are located on the platform of the same «cloud». Neither the user should worry about anti-viruses, backup, version tracking and resource shortage (for e.g. CPU speed or free disk space).

 

Useful links:

• Gartner, Google discuss future of cloud computing
• The Future of Cloud Computing

 
Result.

So, what will become PC in such circumstances? It will become a terminal. You will have terminals at home and at work, and turning them on gives you access to the same environment. Of course, some services may be restricted by terminal id, and UI will be depend on your settings and terminal hardware. And the similar terminal you will get instead of your smartphone..You will get access to all the  data, that are now usually stored on a PC,  from anywhere in the world. In case you lose or break the phone, you lose nothing, you simply block access to your virtual computer from that terminal.
 

Fantasy.
 

All the above is rather obvious — it's already existing trends and tendencies, wich one way or the other are bound to be implemented in the next 8-15 years. Now I shall tell you how I imagine a mobile device in such environment of the future. For that let's add to the three mentioned technologies the developed NFC/Blutooth technology (connection and data exchange between two mobile devices on small distances) and induction chargers.
 
There are many form factors of such devices and everybody can choose a model that meets his own needs and lifestyle. Unfortunately we don't always succeed. In addition, user preferences may change during the day depending on the type of activities, applications to use or location. Everybody sometimes had like to have qwerty keyboard. Or a larger touch screen. But all these characteristics increase the size of the device and in 90% of cases are not in use. So you should buy several devices: a device for work and another for enertainment, and then to synchronize the data between them. Or to choose what is the most important for you. Again the user can not uprade the parts of his hardware. I am sure you familiar with the situation when the model is ideally suited to you, but the camera is too weak, and you can't change it.

The solution of all these problems is device modularity and the first step in it is using of headsets. Let's consider a smartphone: roughly speaking it is a CPU, a screen and a keyboard. Place them in separate modules, that can communicate with each other, transfer data and be charged by induction chargers. Thus, we shall get the intellectual micro environment around us, which can be changed in accordance with our lifestyle.

Terminal block, which contains a CPU, an Internet communication tool and  other modules disclosure and connection tools, will hang on the belt, or lie on a table next to the monitor. Its only purpose  is to locate and connect the necessary equipment, and ensure  its Internet connection. This module provides the link between the virtual user workplace and the means of input / output/ visualization of the  user data.

Wireless (perhaps touch) screen block. So, you can carry your screen, that is not larger that those of a smartphone, for making video calls. Then you go to your office and connect  the terminal block to the  full-fledget 20 inches display. Want more? Connect severals displays at the same time. Are you in travel and have no display with you? Go to the nearest payment terminal  and connect to its display. A new means of vizualization (for e.g. Glasses or clocks with displays) is invented? They can be connect to your terminal using standard protocol, and the web-severs, that forms the image  would take into account their particular hardware. In case of loss, depreciation or upgrade of your screen (and of any other module) you have only to change this single module.
 
Keyboard block. In travels I need only two buttons: «accept call» and «hang up». Place them on the clock. Want more, and the touch screen doesn't fit - take a wireless mini keyboard with (or without) a display. Are you writg blogs or working at the office? Connect a PC keyborad and a mouse.

The device modularity principle will allow third part contributors to take experiments with input devices (with their sizes, design and layout).

To such a smart environment it is possible to connect moduls of any functionality: sensors, detectors, GPS-modules. Moreover, even stationary  modules can connect and interact dynamically: for e.g. Getting in your car, the terminal unit becomes the core of the car navigation system and gets information about amount of fuel, speed, condition. The car may have a navigation screen, that recieves the map data from the web, and you can connect or whatever depending of your need. The terminal module will able to read  and translate information from the static information modules. Thus, you will get a fresh restaurant menu while just entering into it, or you can read about all the data in the supermarket stores and shares in them right at the entrance. Dream on this theme can be quite long.

Is it possible? I think it is. Of course, the development of the wireless connection, SaaS and Cloud computing will not be even. For example, if SaaS progres will overcome those of wireless data transfer, we shall get a little bit different situation in IT. There are not direct ways, but the common trend will be maintained and first or last we shall get to the described intellectual user environment.

Interesting Links:

• First shots of the modular LG VX9600 Versa with detachable keyboard
• Modu phone: The evolution of exchangeable covers

 

Same blog post on Russian.