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Gabor Torok's Forum Nokia Blog
Predictions for 2009
tote_b5 | 05 January, 2009 02:44
- I commented on ad-driven content and how much e.g. Google depends on operators in allowing their users to use the Internet at a fair price on their mobile. Well, it was only a concern that I raised, but Google's (and Apple's) move was brilliant: they showed that it is not impossible to change the rules. What I really mean is that both companies have their phones offered by network operators with a flat-rate data tariff (it's according to the agreement between the handset vendors and operators), which is really the way for free Internet usage.
- As to NFC, I disagreed with the statement of one of my fellow champions, Paul Coulton, that 2008 would be the year for the rise of this technology. I now think that I was right in this question: this technology had so many challenges (let it be technical or political between banks and operators, for example) that 2008 would have been too early for the rise.
- Touch - I have only seen the hype around Apple's new phone at the time of writing my previous prediction, but even the early signs were enough to predict that other manufacturers will try to copy Apple's success. I was right in this, but of course, having only this new feature is not enough for success, though obviously is a mandatory component in the recipe of success.
- As for Java and that it would be becoming more popular again on mobile platforms, to be honest I can't see any measurable change today. Okay, Android development environment requires mostly this knowledge (not to mention Brew), however, this platform is yet too young to have significant influence on Java's success.
- Awakening of North-America to smartphones: it DID happen. People on that continent has finally realized that there are other features that a mobile phone can offer, there are other services that they can use with their favourite gadget, and in general there is much more that they can do with their cell phone that they could ever imagine. And since North-America is in a very strong position when it comes to technology, the awakening of people living there will surely give a boost to innovation and further spread of smartphones.
- Finally, I wrote that manufacturers who really think in big will not only sell phones, but also provide Internet services to users. This has also become true, although this will be a never-ending process currently with two-kinds of players: one that has already proven on service-front (e.g. Apple, Google) and the other which is already a recognized brand in mobile (e.g. Nokia).
- Most importantly: the trend will continue for smartphones to become a commodity. Despite the financial crisis more and more people buy smartphones as they become more affordable (mostly due to binding contracts, though prices get lower, too) and once users get used to advanced features they'll be reluctant to give up using them.
- As to advanced smartphones with binding contracts, the two newcomers, Apple and Google, managed to achieve that their devices are sold in a contract with flat-rate data tariff. The obvious effect of this is that users will use the internet much more and will be online for much longer.
- More services will become available, their integration is a key factor for handset vendors (Nokia: Life Tools, Comes With Music, Mobile e-mail and mail on Ovi, etc.; iTunes & MobileMe for Apple; Zune for Microsoft; GMail, Calendar, Docs, etc. for Android-powered phones, etc.). Thanks to these services network operators will be in a worse position to fight for users who not only purchase phones and pay monthly subscription-fee, but also willing to pay for additional services.
- Touch still rules with such innovative ideas as gloves, multiple devices to share their resources, etc. Even more, touch display will not remain a smartphone-only feature, but other devices in the lower-segments will also be equipped with it (e.g. Nokia's first feature phone on Chinese market: http://www.mobilemonday.net/news/nokia-announces-shows-chinese-touchscreen-phone).
- 3rd-party apps and app stores: we'll see the introduction of new and re-newed application stores with client integration. Commercial software can be downloaded as well as freeware, revenue share will be more advantageous for developers than it's been so far. The fact that handset vendors are providing their application stores, too, will cause hard times for such independent players as Handango, for example. On the other hand, the obvious advantage of these regular providers will not really disappear: the variety of mobile handsets for which they offer content is much bigger than the coverage of any of the new stores will ever be.
- NFC - it seems the time has come for this buzzword to become more popular. In last November, GSM Association called for Pay-Buy-Mobile handsets so that NFC technology be built into commercially available mobile handsets from mid-2009.
- Android phones spread all over the world: we have already heard about the second handset that Kogan, an Australian company will ship this January, but rumours have been told about HTC, Huawei and other companies, too, that there will be other phones based on this platform.
- Nokia finally to gain more market share in North-America thanks to AT&T for seeing lots of potential in Symbian to become the main smartphone OS in their portfolio
- Use of mobile phones in new areas: Nokia Life Tools for users at the bottom of the pyramid (mid-range, low-end phones mainly), Nokia Home Control Center for advanced users who wish their smart home to be controlled by their smartphone, etc.
- Transforming smartphone market shares: Motorola, Palm getting weaker (former betting on Android, latter introducing yet another proprietary system), RIM, Sony Ericsson "to survive" (RIM closed a surprisingly good 3th quarter in 2008; Sony Ericsson is also giving a try to Android), Apple getting strong (iPhone Nano in the queue), Samsung remaining strong (very innovative company challenging Nokia, the leader, all the time), although Nokia's position gets slightly weaker, it still remains the most dominant player (one of the most versatile players in this arena with lots of innovation in different areas of mobile space), Microsoft to struggle (has any one of you heard anything about them lately?).
- Open-source model to gain ground - license-free handsets, free development environments, high inspiration for developers & tech companies to help each other, etc.
- LTE - let's return to 4G and LTE next year, okay?
- WiMAX - don't expect mass adoption of this technology in mobile phones yet (though pioneers have already appeared in 2008)
- Mobile TV - the future is still foggy: which standard to follow (DVB-H or DVB-T?), will people buy this service at all, etc.
iPhone, Windows Mobile, Symbian, Android, Nokia |
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Comments
Thanks for your comments!
tote_b5 | 05/01/2009, 11:53
Hi Mark,
Thanks for your comments, Mark! Of course, I meant iPhone Nano, it's already corrected in the text. And although you're right that what I really meant is stronger appearance of *Symbian* phones in North-America, I still think that Nokia will close 2009 in a stronger position from this point of view. Let's just see, the financial crisis will have serious effect on everything this year.
Thanks again,
Tote
best guesstimate
coultonp | 05/01/2009, 16:28
Hi Tote
I pretty much agree with your predictions except perhaps about Android as unless they get some decent devices in the market I think it will simmer in the background. I think your right I was perhaps a little early with NFC and my other prediction about Green being the new Open but both of these started to gain ground in the latter half of the year. I think App stores will be the big buzz word for mobile next year and a strong challenger to the Apple store will appear.Another of my predications from last year about personalisation of the device through widgetisation of the dashboard didn’t really happen but again I think due to the Iphone and the N97 this will become a hot area. Thinking about it I should have said my last years predications were for 2009 and I may have done better ;)
You're the real profet, Paul!
tote_b5 | 05/01/2009, 16:47
Let me bow before you. ;)
N98
tomco1984 | 17/01/2009, 18:10
hi.the nokia N98 will release in 2009 or not?
That is the question
tote_b5 | 17/01/2009, 18:54
To be honest, I don't know. :)
future prediction
cell phone news | 29/05/2009, 02:00
is it prediction of future or analyse of realities. anyway thank you.
Good (although maybe slightly safe) predictions!
Sorcery-ltd | 05/01/2009, 10:20
I think most of your predictions will come true! Mind you, that's because a lot of them are known to be starting to happen already...
I wouldn't be so sure that Nokia will do much better in North America - it may be Samsung rather than Nokia that gets Symbian phones to do better there, certainly it will be a challenge for Nokia. The Samsung brand is rather stronger in the US than Nokia I think.
On the subject of Samsung, I'd point out that they aren't at all strong in Smartphones at the moment (although they are in the phone market generally) and this could be the year where they start to show up on the smartphone market share charts.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Mark
P.S. Typo - I'm sure you meant iPhone Nano rather than iPod Nano. ;)