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Software architect working in Symbian/S60 area since 2000 and still being enthusiastic about mobility. Please visit my introduction page on Forum Nokia Champions web page.

Smartphone OS market share in 2007

tote_b5 | 07 December, 2007 10:10

I'm a big fan of Simon Judge's blog, Mobile Phone Development, and I read his article about Q3/2007 Smartphone Market Share with great interest. I agree with his findings, however, I would add my own thoughts to it, too.

I found it very interesting that most people might not noticed without paying careful attention to the details, that there are already more smartphones running Linux than Windows. It was surprising for me to see that, as I've sort of had the impression so far that even though mobile Linux has its potentials, it still hasn't gained much market share as of yet. Well, I was wrong.

The next thing worth noting with regards to mobile Linux that almost a quarter of the whole report is about explaining why mobile Linux would be a bad alternative for manufacturers, operators, etc. Surprisingly, considering costs as well. That, of course, shows what Symbian really thinks about this threat.

As to Windows Mobile: I've also read a couple of reports, where analysts predicted that Microsoft would take over the lead role as mobile OS vendor from Symbian by 2010, but I also believe that it's unrealistic. Although I recall a question I was asked informally by someone in London, where I attended Forum Nokia Developer Day this October, that what I was thinking about the competition between Microsoft and Symbian. I asked back: is there any competition? This might sound as a joke and now I think I was too self-confident: although Microsoft might not pose a big risk to Symbian as of yet, it's still a key player that's just getting stronger over time.

I've just read it at over IntoMobile that iPhone outsells e.g. Nokia N95 in Europe. Well, although it's a BIG warning sign, let's not forget about that Nokia

Finally, some notes on mobile OS market share in the US:
  • There are two vendors who have much bigger share here, than all around the world: Microsoft and Palm. Their cases are pretty much different, though: whilst Palm will potentially disappear from the (rest of the) market in the not-too-far future, Windows Mobile is predicted to gain bigger share from year to year.
  • However, it's not only these two players among whom the market is split. Or at least will be soon. Apple has just jumped in to this business with great initial success. Although selling pretty well in Q3/07 is something remarkable, they still need some time and stable growth to catch up.
  • Symbian fills a marginal role in this part of the world, but as we all know Nokia and Sony Ericsson are both working hard to change the situation. Nokia has, for example, just teamed up with Verizon (ehm, it was Verizon who joined Nokia, actually) for developing a fourth generation mobile broadband network. I believe a successful co-operation with a big American carrier is the first step for Nokia to gain a foothold in US. Sony Ericsson, on the other hand, has sold 50% of their share in UIQ (a company, but also the name of a Symbian variant) to Motorola. Even though Motorola is said to be fighting for survival, they're still a key player whose help might always come in handy.
  • Finally, what is not in the figures is OHA: although they're still nothing more than a promising alternative now, the first phones based on Android will appear during next year - I wonder if they will be able to make as a good start as Apple did.

Your thoughts are welcome - as always!

Originally from mobile-thoughts.blogspot.com.

Tote

Business Opportunities/Services, Mobile OS | Next | Previous | Comments (8) | Trackbacks (0)

Comments

more practical

kcomex | 07/12/2007, 17:01

thanks torok, for your thoughts:) i will share some of mine which discussed in IM with my friend just yesterday about this topic:) i showed my points that mobile phones(both feature phone and smartphone) industry is a bit different than software and any other market. M$ could beat Netscape and Palm and Real media and some other players in the computer, but within mobile phone industry his chance is different and very small. because one of the practical reason is the gap between manufacturer and the software vendor, the gap is made by both technical and business. This point could also apply to google, which i categorize him to software vendor cause google's core product is software/algorithm. Also i had said the consumer electronics industry is more closer to mobile industry than software. so a big market sharer might be apple more than M$ or google. they got the key to sell something to customers, but not the key to improve the speed of window resizing :P

Let me disagree

tote_b5 | 08/12/2007, 13:28

Hi kcomex, First off, thank you for commenting. However, let me disagree with your findings. Microsoft has never been a manufacturer - neither desktop, nor mobile. But yet, as we all know Windows has the biggest market share among desktop operating systems. Although that's true that mobile and desktop markets are very different in many respects, however, I can't see that it would be THE key factor *who* manufactures the actual hw. As to Google: I did not mention the name of the company on purpose. You know, it's just one thing that the initiative (i.e. OHA) is kicked-off by Google, it's a much larger group that we're talking about with regards to OHA. Thus, it doesn't count, again, that Google is a software company or not - there are lots of other companies also member of OHA that are from different areas: ranging from operators to device manufacturers, sw vendors, etc. Finally, I think the key factors for successful products are: user appeal (form factor, easy of use, etc.), provided features and of course price. Having this list, iPhone is in a very strong position in user appeal, Symbian and MS phones in provided features and finally Android phones (when they'll be available) in price. Tote

Choose your own OS?

Sorcery-ltd | 08/12/2007, 15:31

Interesting post as usual Tote! Thanks. I would agree with your last comment and suggest it's a little short sighted not to imagine a day when smartphones are more common and better supported than PCs. Who makes the hardware will be about price, style & branding while you'll be free to flash whatever OS you want to run, Symbian, Windows, Linux etc. As much as I don't like Microsoft smartphone products now I wouldn't bet against them gaining significant market share in the long run. As phone hardware gets closer to PCs in power the easier it'll be to move stuff over from the desktop. They just have so many resources to throw at this market I can't imagine them failing forever. As for Apple, it'll be interesting to see if the iPhone is just a one off overhyped iconic product that is actually rather rubbish (a lot like Motorola's RAZR) or if they can follow up with more of the same or possibly even something rather better. Mark

Random points of view

JOM | 09/12/2007, 10:46

Microsoft has LOTS of money. When they seriously want to expand outside closed USA market, they will do it. They can compete with lower price longer than anyone else (except google). Also their developer support is THE example for anyone else. Key point in Apple iPhone is that it's very simple on purpose. The feature set is limited and, partly because of that, it's very easy to use. Check any Nokia/SE phone and spend next 15 minutes just trying to figure out how to do anything (like swithing from Hungarian to English language :). Usability is a strong selling point. Blackberry RIM is still hanging on in USA, please remember that. They have faithful customer base. Android is very attractive to developers, unlike Symbian OS. Possibility of EASY application development will create a big supply of 3rd party sw, which in the end will allow operators and OEM to offer different kind of devices. Also some users like to have possibility to personalize their devices - including sw they want to use. However this will take some time. My foretelling is that Symbian is close to it's peak. Truly open sw development environments like Android and truly usable devices like iPhone will gain ever bigger share. I would also bet that Nokia Maemo will get more important in not-so-far future. Also I foretell that Nokia will stay on top no matter what happens.

What is a "smartphone"?

ed welch | 10/12/2007, 15:35

It's funny that they monitor smartphone marketshare, when there is no clear definition of the term. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone One definition is any phone that can run native apps that don't run in sandbox (i.e. any S60 phones in Nokia's case), but the iPhone would actaully fail that test :-D

True, iPhone is not a smartphone, but still

tote_b5 | 10/12/2007, 22:58

Hey, Yep, there are many people who argue that iPhone is not a smartphone at all. Actually, I agree with them. However, it's a better feature phone, I would say (although it has a touch screen, for example, which is usually part of smartphones). But, as we all know, Apple is planning to introduce their SDK for developer to make apps for iPhone. So it'll be officially a smartphone shortly.

Symbian figures too high also

Sorcery-ltd | 12/12/2007, 10:51

Note that Symbian also includes millions of Japanese phones as smartphones which are locked to only allow a type of Java application to be developed by 3rd parties and installed. So those aren't smartphones either really.

touch ui

hort laderhosen | 13/12/2007, 21:54

Nokia already has a fine touch UI with N800/N810, just finally slap a 3G modem to it. As for mobile/web services and beating iphone, nokia needs to start caring about quality and finish touch. There are dozens of other wma webshops and wma music players and they all suck. They are buggy and littered with usability quirks. Just like nokia phones... Do less features but do the few features *well*. Things like "10min to FIX" gps on N95 only make customers angry.
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