Robin Jewsbury's Forum Nokia Blog - World "everyone connected day" 11th June 2012?

re: slowing economy

Its the economies in India, China and the rest of the underdeveloped world which will define the growth. The slowing of the western economies will have little effect on these numbers actually (since these markets are mostly saturated anyway). Also this article (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/telecoms/article3368000.ece ) interested me. It predicts the £5 phone which I could see becoming free in some markets via subsidies.
This is a very interesting area... especially as no-one really knows what will happen...

it would be cool if it happens but with rising inflation and slowing economy's around the worlds richest countries it is/or will cause a slowdown in the market place so i think it might take a couple years longer unless we see the current state of thing's get better ,but man experts predict it to get worse.With food prices getting higher by the day more people are soon going to be forgetting about things they could live without

Correction

Links not fully visible, trying again, sorry for mess:

Eurostat

UNESCAP

Statistics

The curve is going to boom right top of 100%, so you might want to check your algorithm again. I don't really trust statistics, but here's some links because of their history information:

First from Eurostat about Europe.
Second from UNESCAP about Asia

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1996,39140985&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&screen=detailref&language=en&product=Yearlies_new_population&root=Yearlies_new_population/C/C7/ecb11024
http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2007/17-Information-and-communication-technology.asp

Cheers,

--jouni

Prediction

The prediction is a pure linear projection. Now in reality you would expect the prediction to follow an 'S' shape. Currently the phone growth is on a weakly rising exponential, that is the beginning of the 'S' and you might expect the curve to flatten as it approaches 100% penetration. However, its more complex because penetration might well go above 100% - can this happen in a world context? I expect many to doubt it, but I think it really could happen because of low cost phones being sold - hence my feeling a linear projection is realistic. I guess this one can be debated.

But how do you get the predictive statistics?